I agree with Source on this. I see Halo 3 in the 7-11 million range and SMG in the 12-24 (maybe even 30+) million range. Mario is harder to estimate because it's harder to guess just how high the Wii's sales will go and what the exact tie rate will be. Halo is easier since the 360's ceiling and Halo's tie in ration is more evident.
Don't think that just because many casuals are buying the Wii for Wii Sports and Fit that they won't ever buy another game. For example I've seen several old ladies in Game Crazy talking about buying a DS to play Brain Age or Cooking Mama and now they're playing NSMB. Similarly my gf plays Wii Sports yes but she saw the Mario trailer online and wants it. Mario Galaxy could really explode to epic sales since it is probably the ultimate and only must-have gateway game for the ubercasuals.
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