September 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

[trunkswd]

JRPGfan said:

CosmicSex said:

Xbox having its worst September ever really boggles my mind. Im expecting GTA 6 to break the fall next month and November.

For PS5..  so back a few months ago during one of Sonys conference calls, it was stated that They had not seen a sales effect as a result of all the negative social media content.  It should be noted that online is not real life.  

Hardware - PlayStation 5 hardware dollar sales grew 43% in September when compared to a year ago. Spending fell year-on-year for both Xbox Series (-2%) and Nintendo Switch 2 (-12%).

Yeah it is up 43% for PS5  (in terms of dollars earned). 


for unit sales this is it:

"....PlayStation 5 unit sales increased by 22% year-on-year, with Switch 2 unit sales falling 14% and Xbox Series dropping 27%."  - Mat Piscatella

From OP:

VGChartz US estimates for September 2025:

1. NS2 - 277K
2. PS5 - 190K
3. XS - 84K

Add in 22%, -14% and -27% you end up at (for sept. 2026 in the US):

1. NS2 - 238K
2. PS5 - 232K
3. XS - 61K

And that should be around the results right?


(edited because I messed up, looking at VGC global numbers instead of US ones, and applied the %'s to that :P first)

Edit nr 2:

from OP:

RESULTS

Units: PS5 > NS2 > XS > NS1
Revenue: PS5 > NS2 > XS > NS1

Our 2025 numbers might be slightly off then.
Because if you use the numbers in %'s from Piscatella, the NS2 should still be out on top (by a tiny bit, 238k vs 232k).
If we know that unit wise PS5 is supposed to beat the NS2... right?

I'm bad at this stuff... I should just stop it here. 
Let others better at this stuff work out final numbers.

We had to adjust our September 2025 estimates as the PS5 outsold the Switch 2 this month, while using the % changes on the previous figures meant the PS5 was too low. Also had to adjust Xbox Series up slightly for last year.

Updated September 2025 estimates in the US:

1. NS2 - 277K
2. PS5 - 212K
3. XS - 89K
4. NS - 61K