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tak13 2 days ago
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XtremeBG said:
tak13 said:

Yeah, i didn't specify it because its apparent on the quoted post.

5 week month, but price increase.

You would still be way off if it was a 4 weeks month.

I will explain my intention, it was shocking you to have the highest prediction about ns2, sometimes there is some wishful thinking  clouding our "predictions", i m not innocent in that, i predicted 42k, then lowered it 41k NS for instance, but deep inside i was anticipating 38k and behold eventually somewhat less,i almost got the NS2 though, (mine is the lowest one) 

By a hair you would have a fantastic 4 prediction.

I m so curious to see what you will predict for NS2 october.

When I said 5 week month, I meant it for the NS1. That system didn't had price increase in September. NS2 yes, I overestimated it. And of course, I would be way off with a 4 week month, but if it was 4 week month I would said lower number.

My wishful thinking is for all systems to be successful, in order for the whole gaming industry to be successful. And I would want the NS2 to be a little bit higher than what it's actually is. Cuz the hype was so big in the beginning, the first sales were record breaking, and if it remained so, it could've reached new highs after the first and the second year. It still can, but it lost some steam (for record breaking sales), which lower the chances at least for the near future a little bit. 

Other than that, my predictions were and are always based on history and trends not bias or wishful thinking. I expected because of the 5 week month, the NS2 to be even with the 4 week one August, exactly because of the price increase. I expected smaller drop, combined with a little boost of going in the latter part of the year. It dropped more however.

For October, weekly sales after the first week of September in US stabilized somewhat, ending the month with weeks of 48k and 47k. I would say 50k weeks for October, therefore something around ~200k, however there should be boost in the last week because of the Zelda bundle, so 250k. (sadly it does not include the game). November should be way higher with the game releasing however.

I would anticipate below 200k (190k), before sephiran made a reference for the upcoming zelda title release, for which I was without a clue.

So, it launches late and there is a bundle.

That makes the prediction challenging.