When will the Switch pass 160M?

[archbrix]

Conina said:

V-r0cK said:

Looking at Nintendo's track record they don't seem to keep production of their previous consoles for more than a year or so after the release of their new console, so if they were to follow suit, then the original Switch doesn't have much time left, and all that remains are the ones that are left in stock.

But it would be stupid to stop producing their entry-level handheld Switch Lite (affordable, easier to hold for younger kids with small hands) before they can offer a similar sized handheld version of the Switch 2. Then they lose a whole consumer segment until they can offer a "Switch 2 Lite".

And with the current RAM crisis it can take longer than expected until they put 12 GB RAM into a $249 - $299 "Switch 2 Lite" instead of putting the same amount of RAM into a $499 Switch 2.

Exactly this. 

We can't simply look at Nintendo's past track record regarding production with any degree of accuracy when the current market conditions are so radically different than they've ever been before.  The Switch Lite is in a class all by itself as far as affordability, even at $229.  And unlike the DS or 3DS, the Switch is making a lot more money, getting a lot more games (thanks to indies/smaller titles) and can be used as a gateway system into the "Switch" ecosystem.  I fully expect Switch Lite to remain in production after the other two Switch models have been discontinued, functioning no different than a traditional Nintendo handheld.

It is quite likely that Nintendo will at least reach its 2m goal for this fiscal year with Switch - compare that with the DS' year aligned at about 30k.  Very different circumstances when you consider how much longer Nintendo could run with the Switch Lite for the next few years of the RAM crisis.