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I think Nintendo is gonna make a Lite model, they're gonna want a more accessible model and a new SKU is always helpful to revitalize sales (and based on Furukawa's statements they definitely want the generation to last atleast a good amount of time).

When will it happens is the tricky question. On one hand I think there's a lot of things that could point out to 2027 (the need to make a new base model with an amovible battery for Europe by February 2027, Pokemon launching in 2027) but it really depends on how the economic situation evolves too.

I'm not a tech expert either but one thing I could maybe see, if they indeed make a Lite model, is give it less storage (128 GB ?)