Microsoft’s 3 billion bet on Copilot is assessed to be a disaster

[Chrkeller]

curl-6 said:

Chrkeller said:

Sure, but look man I am old-ish.  I remember when people laughed when people said everything was going to have a .com because who needed to be connected all day long?  I remember when people scoffed at the idea of mobile phones for everyone.  AI is far from the first time, in my life, where people didn't see the long-term value.  

Yes — Amazon lost money in its first years after starting in 1994. The company was founded by Jeff Bezos in a garage in Bellevue, Washington, and launched as an online bookstore in 1995 Wikipedia+1.

In its early stages, Amazon reinvested heavily into infrastructure, technology, and expanding product categories, even though it was not making profits. This “growth over profit” strategy meant the company was spending more than it earned, leading to hundreds of millions in losses during the first several years LinkedIn.

Amazon’s first profitable quarter came in Q4 2001, about seven years after launch, with a profit of just $5 million on over $1 billion in sales LinkedIn. Even after going public in 1997, it continued to lose money for years, with total losses in 1996 still around $2.2 million LSA Technology Services.

So, while Amazon did not turn a profit until late 2001, it was not unusual for a company in its early stage to operate at a loss if it was focused on building long-term value rather than short-term earnings.

Amazon always had a clear plan, is the difference.

By contrast, Open AI's Sam Altman told a room of investors with a straight face that "first we will make AGI, then we will ask the AGI how to make money". It's telling that the whole room laughs at him, it's like saying "first I will find out how to turn lead into gold, then I will be rich."

Likely we will have to agree to disagree.  I think their path, especially copilot, is simple.  Get SP500 companies integrated, then charge license fee.  It will be like Office in short order.  MS will recoup their costs for copilot with ease.  Licenses for millions of copies for decades upon decades...  done and dusted.