The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

[archbrix]

If all Switch comprised of were the original model and the OLED at their current prices, then yes, the 160m ship would have sailed long ago. It all hinges on the Lite model which maintains a value proposition that no other game system on the market can match. That’s never been the case before, as there has always been a Wii, 3DS, even a $249 Xbox One eventually... something as an alternative to whatever was popular and more expensive at the time. There is nothing on the market that comes close to the Lite’s value even at $229 and there are always kids, people going on trips, jobs with a lot of down time, etc where a cheap handheld fits the bill for someone looking for more than mobile games and the Switch’s library is among the best in history. Obviously, these numbers won’t amount to big sales anymore, but could Nintendo exceed its 2m projection for this fiscal year if it applied itself? Of course it could. The question is, will it?

Maybe Nintendo can’t do anything about the price increasing but it sure could make the value of the hardware more attractive via bundles, as including a code in the box wouldn’t cost them squat. It would, however, get “budget” priced hardware into people’s hands who would then buy more games, sign up for online accounts and possibly upgrade to Switch 2 hardware eventually instead of going with the competition. All wins and no losses for Nintendo.

Tomodachi Life is incredibly popular and hasn’t even had its first holiday yet. I think a $249 Switch Lite bundle this fall would sell nicely. Rhythm Heaven comes out this summer and there are still other token games like Professor Layton and Decapolice yet to arrive. How about those Wind Waker, Skyward Sword and Wooly World releases for Switch 1, Nintendo? You release Luigi’s Mansion 2 for Switch but not A Link Between Worlds? How can a game that good die on the 3DS?

Another thing to keep in mind is that the idea of a Switch 2 Lite, something I’ve always said would essentially replace the current Lite as the budget alternative, is probably not happening any time soon, as the general consensus seems to be that it could not arrive at a price cheap enough that would justify it. This would legitimize keeping Switch Lite around even more as the “impulse buy” offering, possibly after the other models have been discontinued.

Remember, unlike any of us here, there are folks who are not looking to spend $449+ on a gaming platform who could be enticed by a Switch Lite for a few more years. If it does happen it will probably be around 2030 or so, but yeah, leave it on the market for a 13 year total and I think we still have something to discuss. I think people exclaiming it’s all over or that it would need another 10 years (oh please) to accomplish this are short sided of a scenario such as this. Doesn’t mean it’s happening though - maybe just my way of coping, lol - but I’m still not calling it quits until this fiscal year plays out.