I think the PS4 would have sold less than it did and the Xbox One would have sold better, Honestly if you look at what Phil Spencer did for Xbox during 2014-2017 and if he was able to do what he did in 2012 just 1 year before the Xbox One released it would have blown the PS4 out the gate. Backwards Compatibility day one, dumping Kinect, more focus on studios / buying studios before launch, Game Pass at launch, a better designed Xbox One console outside and inside (more like the One S), not use the Windows 8 OS, etc. If this was all there in just the first year of the Xbox One I wouldn't see why you'd go with a PS4 unless you're just a PS guy.
Remember if the PS4 didn't sell as well as it did that would have been the end for Playstation, so if Microsoft didn't fumble (and same with Nintendo) Playstation as a console might not be here right now.
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