By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Kyuu 5 days ago
Edit Thread
Norion said:
Sogreblute said:

I think 14 million or less. We are now in the 6th year where sales are gonna dip. Looking at the 4th and 5th years for PS4 (2017-2018) and PS5 (2024-2025) they sold similar and had a similar dip, so I'm gonna guess the 6th year will be a similar dip in sales. PS4 did 14 million in year 6 (2019). That's how I came to 14 million or less for PS5. Also, I think a lot of people are overestimating how much GTA 6 will impact PS5 sales this year.

Yeah I do think people should be careful not to get carried away with just one game. It's gonna be the biggest game launch of all time but games released that late in the life-span of a console basically never cause any notable boost in hardware sales, RDR2 caused no boost at all for example despite releasing a year earlier in gen 8.

Since GTA 6 is gonna be so insanely huge I do expect it'll still cause a significant boost the period it comes out, perhaps making it sell an extra million or so this holiday than it would've sold otherwise but sales will return to normal quickly after 2027 begins. The people expecting it to cause a much bigger boost than that and even some sort of long term boost are being quite unrealistic I'd say since the vast, vast majority of people who will play GTA 6 on the PS5 will already have one by November this year. Some people will have bought one last year due to expecting to play GTA 6 by May. 

1. GTA today is MANY times more popular than RDR was in 2018. RDR1 sold around 15 million copies by 2018 across all platforms (8 million~ copies less than God of War or Spider-Man on PS4 alone). RDR2, like GTA5, grew slowly and organically.

2. PS4 faced some actual competition from Xbox. Until the PC version is released, 90% of GTA6's system selling effect may go to PS5.

3. Sony didn't have a large playerbase stuck with PS3. GTA6 should transition millions of PS4 players as well as former players who stopped playing the game because it's too old. Unlike PS3, PS4 remains big with a large number of players who didn't yet upgrade. It's safe to say that GTA6 will be a good reason for many of them to finally upgrade.

4. Unlike PS4, PS5 has room for effective pricedrops. Though unfortunately the prices kept climbing outside temporary deals, and the coming days may be worse. A major difference between PS5 and older consoles is that PS5 didn't have a normal price trajectory (and yet it kept up with the PS4). If prices miraculously start dropping, another past trend/pattern would be broken, and we could see PS5 sales increase year on year, reversing the decline for a year. GTA6 would've guaranteed it.

5. GTA6 will have a long term impact. Sales year on year will of course decline. But without the game, the deline would have been greater.

6. Finally, we don't even know yet how long this generation is going to last. The longer it is, the more consoles GTA6 will sell. It's just common sense.