trunkswd said:
Under 30 million is not realistic. It was revealed in June 2023 the Xbox Series X|S was 21M+
This here alone would mean that, in average since July 2023, X|S have sold-through (!) 490k per month up until December 2025 (which we don't have estimates of just yet).
If I assumed 21M+ shipped equals roughly 19M sold-through by June 2023, and as of November 2025 it's at 33.73m sold-through. That's 14.73M units sold-through in 30 months.
But now just look at November or October 2025 - X|S didn't reach that threshold (according to estimates) even of that average anymore - by a mile.
As they didn't in any month of 2025, and that's already a complete 12 months period totally below average.
To me, this just doesn't feel right. The declines in hardware revenue we're way too high, then not even offset by price hikes, and the question of if you take hardware revenue coming from accessoires into account, if you adjust for that, kind of seems to get avoided being adressed?
I personally believe that here's a bubble of around 4-6M units sold-through that haven't been sold-through.
If X|S had shipped 12M as of April 2022, according to the newest piece of data, which could indicate 10M sold-through by that time, then to me there's absolutely no way X|S went on to sell-through another 23.73M units if last year, 2025, according to estimates, they've barely even reached 2.5M units in 12 months.
I think there's something off. It just doesn't add up.
Last edited by Panicradio - on 14 January 2026
