Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 36 million?

[Panicradio]

Given the estimates X|S was selling through in 2023, it wouldn't really make a huge difference if we took March or June as the month of their 21m figure.

But ... I'd claim that they wouldn't put up their last fiscal quarter number up there, but rather an adjusted one, since their presentation was in June, so almost at the end of their next fiscal quarter already.

Regardless though, that would mean X|S would have shipped at least 13m units since either April or July 2023 up until November 2025, which we can scrap right away, because that would be a 0 deviation between sell-through:shipments.

But more likely 16-17m units shipped in either 28 or 31 months.

And since we're estimating roughly 2.5m units sell-through for 2025, this would leave a maximum of roughly 14m units shipped since April '23 (or July '23) up until December 2024.

Which, at least to my estimations, just can't be possible, given the reported declines.

Personally, in support with the numbers KeplerL2 had implied, I just don't see X|S having sold-through 34m units as of November 2025, when in 2025 they're barely even reaching 2.5m units sell-through in 12 months.

I am not throwing jabs at VGChartz here, because we don't get anything from Microsoft, at all.

I'm just disagreeing. But can't proof it, either.

In my personal calculations, I have X|S at 28.2m units shipped as of October 2025. GPT estimated 29m units in its 'optimistic scenario'.