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| PAOerfulone said: Oh, it'll clear 19m easily. As it stands, it is currently tracking slightly ahead of Switch 1's first holiday season (Even without a major exclusive release equal to Super Mario Odyssey. I don't really count Pokemon Legends Z-A since that's also on Switch 1 and Kirby Air Riders is nowhere near a big enough exclusive to sell the amount of units like Odyssey did.) Assuming Switch 2's first December matches Switch 1's first December, much like it did in November, that would put Switch 2 at ~6-6.2 million in Nov+Dec. Add the 1.4m it sold in October and that would put Switch 2 at 7.4-7.6 million units sold in its first major holiday quarter. And that's just units sold. Add THAT amount to the 10.36m shipped as of Sep 30th, and that puts Switch 2 at a MINIMUM of 17.76-17.96m units shipped - Not counting the additional units that haven't been sold to consumers but are still shipped/in-transit to retailers during this quarter. So there's a chance it could be at or past 19 million of the end of December, let alone March. |
I don’t think expecting NS2 to match NS1’s first December is very realistic TBH. The NS1 shortage came to its end around this point, meaning the bottleneck had burst totally open. That said, however, I do foresee 2.5-4.0mil as a very reasonable sales range. This would place total Q3FY26 figures around 5.5-7.0mil… which would be quite impressive for its first holiday lol. That would blast past Nintendo’s projection easily.
