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Sephiran said:

I think its likely that no console reaches 1M sales in the US during December. Switch 2 could go from 500k sales in November to 800k sales in December in the US. So a 1,3M holiday looks fairly likely, which would maybe make Japan the biggest market for Switch 2 this holiday.

Maybe not, if the drop from Switch 1's first holiday remains the same, Switch 2 will do about 850k in December, as you pretty much say.

You never know though, maybe Christmas won't be quite as bad... for some reason.