The Articifical Intelligence thread.

[haxxiy]

SvennoJ said:

Yeah the hope is for a prolonged transition, fast enough for the AI bubble not to remain a bubble, slow enough for the job market and job training to adapt. The other problem with quickly replacing entry level jobs is that those entry level positions are were people learn and gain experience to advance to higher level jobs. Without junior positions, you'll need to invest in training for 'senior' positions. 

The hiring freeze of people coming out of school mentioned in the video will eventually lead to ageing of experienced workers with no replacements. Or AI will advance to take over the higher level jobs as well. But for example would people be OK with eventually the entire legal system replaced by AI? AI can make true on "justice is blind" I guess, yet it will lead to AI setting/deciding policy etc. Maybe it will lead to a fairer world, maybe it will lead to an even more corrupt system. AI can be manipulated as well, a lot easier than bribing tons of people in power.

I suspect we'll see AI complementing productivity and R&D in a few years, while almost everyone still has a job, and when it's able to do almost everything without supervision, there will be laws requiring a human approving or reviewing their output in crucial sectors (plus the impact of late conservative adopters, etc.) for quite some time.

People like Altman and Musk know the massive disruptive potential of general AI and defend some form of UBI out of self-interest and the optimistic view that economic output will increase so much that taxing them 10% or so for UBI will be an easy consensus and more than enough. The thing is, an economic system with a linear component (humans) and an exponential one (AI), as described above, will still be essentially linear as a whole, so I'm not sure how much increased growth we'll see at first.