The Articifical Intelligence thread.

[SvennoJ]

haxxiy said:

I think it's plausible the marginal cost of labor decreases instead of increasing as jovs are automated. If employers see an AI productivity boost as mostly independent of employee quality, for instance.

At the same time, most labor (excluding the jobs that are reduntant/automatable already) is full of small little moments of zero-shot learning and analogical reasoning that even a pretty general and flexible AI model (say, one that saturates ~ all current benchmarks by 2030) will likely struggle with them in the short to mid term. So the automation of labor will take a long time, perhaps enough to deal with the societal and economic concerns around it.

Yeah the hope is for a prolonged transition, fast enough for the AI bubble not to remain a bubble, slow enough for the job market and job training to adapt. The other problem with quickly replacing entry level jobs is that those entry level positions are were people learn and gain experience to advance to higher level jobs. Without junior positions, you'll need to invest in training for 'senior' positions. 

The hiring freeze of people coming out of school mentioned in the video will eventually lead to ageing of experienced workers with no replacements. Or AI will advance to take over the higher level jobs as well. But for example would people be OK with eventually the entire legal system replaced by AI? AI can make true on "justice is blind" I guess, yet it will lead to AI setting/deciding policy etc. Maybe it will lead to a fairer world, maybe it will lead to an even more corrupt system. AI can be manipulated as well, a lot easier than bribing tons of people in power.