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The decline of the Switch sales will be determined by the Switch Lite.

It's not the most popular model since launch, but after the Switch2 arrived it's the model that loses the least sales both in absolute and percentage terms. In the end I believe it's the Lite that determines the bottom level of Switch sales in a year or 2 going forward.

I cannot see a possible Switch2 lite anywhere near that $200 price point and I actually believe a 'regular Switch2 excluding dock' would be the next SKU ($380) if Nintendo needs to offer a cheaper alternative in a year or 2.