| archbrix said: Switch will have out-shipped DS numbers by this time next year and will be over 156m by December 31, 2025. So, I think it's safe to say Switch will have shipped 160m+ by the end of 2026. |
Looks like the first part of my prediction last November is assured but the second will likely slip a month or two. I do think Switch will pass 156m by the end of March like Nintendo predicts. However, the last part of my prediction definitely ain't happening. I voted for end of 2028.
The Switch 1 price hikes have certainly had an effect on this goal, making the original and OLED models look bad value-wise when compared to just buying a Switch 2. But the Switch hitting 160m was always going to come down to the Switch Lite's affordability and that hasn't changed that much. The market for budget gaming may be small but is sustained by casual users, kids... people who would buy a 3DS for half the price of a brand new Nintendo Switch in 2017, for example. And keep in mind that the 3DS still sold around 9m after the release of the Switch. The Switch is far more saturated though and may be tracking lower when aligned after a successor's release, but it has a far stronger library than 3DS ever did and not as far to go. Plus, Switch has transferable accounts and games for anyone ever looking to upgrade to the Switch 2 family, making its forward compatibility an asset of its worth.
So there is still a lot of value in the Switch Lite as the affordable Nintendo handheld until a Switch 2 Lite model releases, which would likely be late 2027 if history repeats itself. And the 3DS was discontinued a year after Switch Lite arrived. So will the Switch Lite's affordability and longevity in Japan be enough for 4m more from April of 2026 until mid-to-late 2028 when it ends production? It's going to be close either way, but I wouldn't count it out just yet.
Still predicting 159m - 161m LTD
