October 2025 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

[trunkswd]

October 2025 Circana (NPD) covers the four-week period from October 5 to November 1 and will be released on November 20.

Since Circana (NPD) leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000
4. [#4 selling console] XXX,000

VGChartz US estimates for October 2024:

1. PS5 - 302K
2. XSX|S - 169K
3. NS - 139K

VGChartz US estimates for September 2025:

1. NS2 - 300K
2. PS5 - 190K
3. XS - 74K
4. NS - 56K

Possible impact on hardware sales:

• XS - 2nd US price hike on October 3 (Link)
• ROG Xbox Ally ($599) and ROG Xbox Ally X ($999) impact on total hardware revenue
• Circana's Mat Piscatella: "On the rankings, just assume SW2>PS5>XBS going forward. If that changes I'll make note."
  • This suggests there is enough of a sales gap that most months the order will be NS2 > PS5 > XS > NS1
• Bigger releases
  • Ghost of Yotei (Released end of September reporting on Oct 2)
  • Battlefield 6 (Oct 10) - PS5, XS, PC
  • Pokémon Legends: Z-A (Oct 16) - NS2, NS1

Current schedule for Circana (NPD):

• Oct (Oct 5 - Nov 1) - Nov 20
• Nov (Nov 2 - Nov 29) - Dec 17

RESULTS

TLDR

1. NS2: 328K
2. PS5: -22% YoY in dollar sales
3. XS: -37% YoY in dollar sales
4. NS1: -52% YoY in dollar sales

Unit sales for PS5, XS, and NS1 should be down more than dollar sales given the price increases.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/466316/switch-2-best-seller-in-the-us-in-october-battlefield-6-top-game/

Switch 2 Best-Seller in the US in October, Battlefield 6 Top Game

The Nintendo Switch 2 in its fifth month remained the best-selling console in the US for October 2025 in terms of units sold and dollar sales, according to figures from Circana (formerly The NPD Group). Circana includes the dates for the five-week period of October 5 to November 1.

The Switch 2 sold 328,000 units in October, which is 68 percent ahead of the Switch 1 and three percent ahead of the PlayStation 4.

The PlayStation 5 was the second best-selling console with dollar sales down 22 percent year-on-year. The Xbox Series X|S came in third place with dollar sales down 37 percent and the Switch 1 came in fourth place with dollar sales falling 52 percent.

The launch of the ASUS ROG Xbox Ally caused spending on the ASUS Portable hardware to increase 4.8 times compared to last year. It is down 30 percent higher year-to-date.

Overall spending on video games in October increased three percent year-on-year from $4.74 billion to $4.89 billion. Spending on video game content increased one percent from 4.30 billion to $4.36 billion, while video game hardware sales increased 36 percent from $258 million to $351 million. Spending on accessories decreased seven percent from $188 million to $176 million.

In terms of 2025 total sales, overall spending on video games is up two percent year-on-year from $46.19 billion to $47.06 billion. Spending on video game content increased one percent from $41.15 billion to $41.52 billion, while video game hardware sales grew 21 percent from $2.91 billion to $3.53 billion. Spending on accessories decreased six percent from $2.13 billion to $2.00 billion.

"Battlefield 6, mobile content and Switch 2 hardware were among the drivers of total projected US spending on video game hardware, content and accessories reaching $4.9B in October 2025, growing 3% vs Oct 2024.," said Circana Executive Director and Video Game Industry Analyst Mat Piscatella.

He added, "Video game hardware spending in October grew 36% when compared a year ago, to $351M. Switch 2 was again able to offset declines across Switch (-52% versus a year ago), Xbox Series (-37%) and PlayStation 5 (-22%).

"Nintendo Switch 2 sold 328k units in October. It is 68% ahead of the sales pace set by the original Nintendo Switch and is 3% ahead of PlayStation 4’s previous record velocity."

Battlefield 6 was the best-selling premium game of October and is already the best-selling game of 2025. It is also the best-selling game on Xbox and PC year-to-date, while it comes in second on PlayStation, behind only NBA 2K26.

"Battlefield 6 produced the highest single month US physical & digital full game tracked dollar sales total in 3 years," said Piscatella. "The last title to generate a larger full game tracked dollar sales total in a single month was Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II in October 2022.

"Battlefield 6 launched as the best-selling game in franchise history, with its October 2025 volume surpassing the lifetime sales total of the previous record holder, Battlefield 1."

Pokémon Legends: Z-A debuted in second place and was the best-selling game on Nintendo platforms. It had the biggest physical game launch month in 2025. However, Nintendo does not share digital sales.

Ghost of Yotei was the third best-selling game of the month and is now the 10th best-selling game of 2025 year-to-date. It is the third best-selling PlayStation game of 2025, only behind NBA 2K26 and Battlefield 6.

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in terms of dollars for October 2025:

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in 2025 year-to-date:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on PlayStation platforms in October 2025:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on Xbox platforms in October 2025:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on Nintendo platforms in October 2025:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on PC in October 2025:

Last edited by trunkswd - on 20 November 2025