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[Bofferbrauer2]

haxxiy said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

I expect it to go like the dotcom bubble, where many involved companies lost up to 95% of share value, but are still around and kicking today.

Keep in mind NVidia losing 95% stock value would still leave them at about $200 Billion...

To be frank, I don't think there's any reason for big tech companies to ever stop investing some 10-20 billion a year each in datacenters and training runs, given the enormous potential payback.

I think they'll be fine unless CUDA and Nvidia fall entirely out of favor (say, IBM or AMD beat them handily in some new architecture, such as binary spiking chips and it's the next big thing like tensor cores were).

10-20 billions would be more than fine, the thing is that currently instead of 10-20 billions they're investing closer to 10-20 trillions, with ROI (return on investment) rates generally being less than 20% so far for the vast majority of AI companies. That simply isn't sustainable for long, especially since computer hardware depreciates in value very quickly.