Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Bofferbrauer2]

BFR said:

Polish PM Tusk says President Zelensky told him Ukraine is prepared to fight for another 2–3 years if needed. He also says the Russian economy is facing dramatic problems, worsened by US sanctions, and has no chance of surviving in the long run. pic.twitter.com/1xBK1MCpMe

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 26, 2025

The Ukrainian attacks on the refineries, coupled with Saudi Arabia opening the floodgates (to bankrupt the shale oil producers, as they need an oil price of at least $70 to break even) and extended sanctions on Russian oil from the US (to which even India seems to bow to) are pretty much a perfect storm for the Russian economy.

To keep the economy running they need to buy refined oil from outside Russia now, and sell it far below buying price to avoid the already high inflation skyrocketing - but this will strain the already strained budget even further, meaning Russia can't afford to spend as much for the military anymore. 

But since the military production has next to oil become the main driver of the Russian economy, they can't afford to do that either without risking a recession.

In short, the Russian economy lives increasingly on borrowed time, the longer the war drags on the higher the risk of a recession. Worse, it would be a recession that would be coupled with a high inflation, which means that whatever Russia does, it can only fight one of both problems in their economy as whatever they choose to improve will worsen the other.