So far, according to VGChartz data ending in September, the Switch has sold near 1.8M units since March 31, 2025. (With this we should see an official total shipment number near 153.92M)
Nintendo needs to ship 2.69M units from Oct 5, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026.
So far in Japan for Oct there hasn’t been a boost in sales from Legends Z-A (unless the data given is the boost, in that case Switch is in a bad position, but for simplicity I’ll say there was just no boost in hardware).
With Oct data, Switch has sold an additional 46.8k in 2 of the 4 weeks in the biggest selling area of the 4. Supposedly Japan will end up with ~95k. I suspect America and Other to have an increase in Switch hardware (from Sept) with 85k and 75k. Europe will probably sell near 70k.
In order for Nintendo to reach their 4.5M goal (if it doesn’t change to 4M on the 4th), Oct-Dec must sell near 2M and Jan-Mar must sell near 0.7M.
To sell 2M in Oct-Dec this would seem to be the best path: Oct 325k, Nov 750k, Dec 925k
To sell 0.7M in Jan-Mar this would seem to be the best path: Jan 325k, Feb 200k, Mar 175k
Ngl, it seems like an uphill battle. In order for this to not be such an uphill battle a couple things need to happen
1. Switch bundles (Legends Z-A, MK8D, each with NSO for 3 months)
2. Switch “discounts” V2@$249, Lite@$149, OLED@$299
3. New Switch skin for Legends Z-A, Kirby Air Riders, or Metroid Prime 4
How do you think Nintendo will make use (if they do) of the holiday season?
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.
