ils411 said:
bumidan said:
@ils411
I hope you read the first few posts thoroughly. Then hopefully you can understand where those numbers are coming from.
Games division lost US$3 Billion + the last few years.
Even by that simple number, of course the PS3 has lost more than that, since PS2 and PSP are profitable. |
actually, i did which is why i said that you had too many assumptions.
lets take fy 05 for example.
404 million is what sony reported. what you did is allocate 48 million for ps1 base on what? you assumed $10 for ps2 hardware and $2 for software base on what? you also assumed $2 for psp software, but again, base on what? though total figures talied at 404 million, the breakdwon is questionable.
like i said, too many assumptions for my taste.
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@ ils411You are correct. All numbers, without actual confirmation by Sony, is by definition assumptions and guesswork.Let me tell you a bit of the methodology I used, so maybe you can understand it a little better from my point of view.The $10(*) and $2(*) for PS1 and PS2 were used for the following reasons:1. I assumed PS1 was making money since it was an old system (last year in fact)2. I assumed PS2 was making about the same since it was near the later part of its lifecycle3. With a bit of trial and error, I used $10 and $2. For the PS2, a retail price of $129.99 to $149.99 with the past 2 - 3 years led me to guesstimate that $130 retail price less about $20 retail & distribution margins = $110. $10 represents approx. 9% to 10% margins on an electronic product - which is about what Sony margins are for their products.4. Figuring out the PS2, then I just copied it for the PS1.5. Remember I was using NET profit, not gross margins for all Sony game products.As per previous posts, the trial and error worked a little bit like this:Using Sony's published SW, HW and profit figures as constants, I had to use somewhat consistent numbers for all 4 fiscal years.I started with the PS2 - since it is constant in all 4 years that I analyzed. The major assumption is that the NET profit for both hardware and software will be relatively stable. That is, it doesn't make too much sense for the profit to be $10 for 1 year and $20 for the next year for hardware (also for software).What made me choose $2(*) for PS2 hardware? First of all, PS2 sold a lot of software in those 4 years. If I used $5(*) net profit - the numbers did not make sense. Why did it not make sense?Well for the FY end Mar 2005 - the PSP hardware would have lost about $1.2(*)Billion dollars or $417(*) per console. Now most Sony fans will tell you that PSP lost money when it launched, but that high number did not make any sense at all. (I don't know if you agree or disagree with this point).Also, as per in a previous post, using $5 for PS2 software made PS3 hardware losses total more $7(*) Billion.You can also see that by using $5 net profit for PS2 software, it would also make me have to use $5 net profit for PS3, PS1 and PSP software. Because I would not have a reason to believe that only PS2 software makes $5 while other software makes $2 per unit.Now using a $5 profit for ALL software, the PS3 hardware losses would have totalled $9 to $11 Billion Dollars!That thread was posted by YOURS TRULY and it was SHUT DOWN by a mod. (haha)So I hope that explains some of the reasoning and methodology of the analysis. So you can see why I used my original assumptions.Do you have any other questions? Please let me know.Thanks.
