September 2025 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

[trunkswd]

September 2025 Circana (NPD) covers the five-week period from August 31 to October 3 and will be released on October 22.

Since Circana (NPD) leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000
4. [#4 selling console] XXX,000

VGChartz US estimates for September 2024:

1. PS5 - 295K
2. NS - 170K
3. XSX|S - 150K

VGChartz US estimates for August 2025:

1. NS2 - 312K
2. PS5 - 171K
3. XSX|S - 60K
4. NS - 45K

Possible impact on hardware sales:

• NS2 - Supply issues / Better stock
• NS1 - Continued impact from price increase on August 3 (Link)
• PS5 - Price increase on August 21 (Link) - Several retailers did not increase price until week 1 of September
• XS - Continued impact from May 1 price increase (Link)
• XS - Announced on September 19 price will increase a 2nd time on October 3. Could mean people buy before 2nd increase (Link)
• Circana's Mat Piscatella: "On the rankings, just assume SW2>PS5>XBS going forward. If that changes I'll make note."
  • This suggests there is enough of a sales gap that most months the order will be NS2 > PS5 > XS > NS1
• Bigger releases
  • Ghost of Yotei - PS5
  • Super Mario Galaxy 1 + 2 - NS2, NS1
  • Battlefield 6 - PS5, XS, PC
  • Pokemon Legends: Z-A - NS2, NS1
  • Ninja Gaiden 4 - PS5, XS, PC
  • The Outer Worlds 2 - PS5, XS, PC
  • Dragon Quest I & II HD-2D Remake - NS2, PS5, XS, NS1, PC

Current schedule for Circana (NPD):

• Sep (Aug 31 - Oct 4) - Oct 22
• Oct (Oct 5 - Nov 1) - Nov 20
• Nov (Nov 2 - Nov 29) - Dec 17

Results:

TLDR:

• NS2 > PS5 > XS > NS1
• PS5 units up over 10% from August, XS units up a bit from August, NS2 units down slightly.
• PS5 outsold PS3 lifetime sales

Link to the VGChartz article here.

Switch 2 Best-Seller in the US in August, Borderlands 4 Top Game

The Nintendo Switch 2 in its fourth month remained the best-selling console in the US for September 2025 in terms of units sold and dollar sales, according to figures from Circana (formerly The NPD Group). Circana includes the dates for the five-week period of August 31 to October 4.

Hardware sales for the Switch 2 were enough to offset the double-digital year-on-year percentage declines for the PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch.

The Switch 2 also continues to be the number one console of 2025 year-to-date in terms of units and dollars. The PlayStation 5 is in second place for September 2025 and for 2025 year-to-date in terms of both units and dollars. The Xbox Series X|S is in third place and the Nintendo Switch is in fourth place.

The PlayStation 5 has now surpassed the lifetime sales of the PlayStation 3 in the US.

Overall spending on video games in September increased 10 percent year-on-year from $4.39 billion to $4.84 billion. Spending on video game content increased 11 percent from 3.91 billion to $4.32 billion, while video game hardware sales increased 24 percent from $261 million to $324 million. Spending on accessories decreased 10 percent from $218 million to $197 million.

In terms of 2025 total sales, overall spending on video games is up two percent year-on-year from $41.44 billion to $42.17 billion. Spending on video game content increased one percent from $36.85 billion to $37.17 billion, while video game hardware sales grew 20 percent from $2.65 billion to $3.18 billion. Spending on accessories decreased six percent from $1.94 billion to $1.83 billion.

"Borderlands 4 Led Several Hit New Releases Helping Deliver 10% Growth in September US Video Game Spending," said Circana Executive Director and Video Game Industry Analyst Mat Piscatella.

He added, "September spending on video game hardware increased by 24% when compared to a year ago, reaching $324M. Nintendo Switch 2 sales were again able to offset the double-digit year-on-year percentage declines seen across PlayStation 5, Xbox Series and Switch."

The PlayStation 5 DualSense Wireless Controller Midnight Black was the best-selling accessory in the US in both units and dollar sales for both September. The Nintendo Switch 2 Pro Controller is the best-selling accessory in both units and dollar sales for 2025 year-to-date.

The attach rate for the PlayStation Portal to the PlayStation 5 is now over five percent, which would put sales around 1.3 million units in the US.

Borderlands 4 was the best-selling premium game of September and is already the third best-selling game of 2025. It was also the best-selling Xbox and PC game, while it came in third on PlayStation.

"Borderlands 4 generated the highest launch month dollar sales of any title in franchise history, nearly 30% higher than the previous best, Borderlands 3," said Piscatella. "Borderlands 4 was the first Borderlands title to launch as the best-selling game of its release month."

EA Sports FC 26 debuted in third place for the month and is also the 15th best-selling game of 2025. It was in the top seven best-selling games on PlayStation (4th), Xbox (3rd), Nintendo (7th), and PC (4th).

NBA 2K26 dropped to second place for the month of September. It is also now the best-selling game of 2025, topping the previous holder Monster Hunter Wilds.

Ghost of Yotei, despite only being available for a few days, debuted in fourth place on the overall charts and in second place on the PlayStation charts. Launch week sales for the game are similar to Ghost of Tsushima.

Silent Hill f debuted in seventh place, Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds debuted in eighth place, Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles debuted in ninth place, NHL 26 debuted in 12th place, Digimon Story: Time Stranger debuted in 13th place, and Super Mario Galaxy + Super Mario Galaxy 2 debuted in 14th place.

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in terms of dollars for September 2025:

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in 2025 year-to-date:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on PlayStation platforms in September 2025:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on Xbox platforms in September 2025:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on Nintendo platforms in September 2025:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on PC in September 2025:

Last edited by trunkswd - on 23 October 2025