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I think 15m is the floor, it should sell better than Arceus even if I think it looks worse. The crossgen release will help greatly. It being one of very few first party titles you can pick up for Switch 2 at launch will help a bit too. Long term I guess it depends if a new pokemon is launching next year. 

I'll go with 15m-17.5m, but I think it passing 17.5m is a definite possibility.