I'm still optimistic that it will surpass 160 million. By the end of March 2025, 152.12 million units had been shipped. Nintendo has made a conservative forecast of 4.5 million units for FY 2026, which would bring the total to 156.62 million. Assuming a cautious estimate of an additional 3 million units over the remainder of the Switch's lifecycle, the total would reach 159.62 million.
However, this projection is conservative from start to finish. It doesn’t account for potential price cuts, special bundles or offers, a new cheaper model, etc. Most importantly, it assumes a short post-Switch 2 sales phase.
If we come close to the 160 million mark without any "bells and whistles," it’s very likely we’ll surpass it with just slightly better performance than this conservative scenario.
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