Soundwave on 15 July 2025
In that alternate history, Sega probably wins the 32-bit/64-bit generation almost by default because games like Final Fantasy VII and MGS simply wouldn't be possible on the N64 unless Nintendo came to their senses and released a CD drive for the N64. So Sega would get all those games to themselves.
So Sega survives, but knowing them they probably would then lose to Nintendo as soon as Nintendo adopted optical disc format.
