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I think the question is: How long will it take the Switch 2 to overtake lifetime sales of PS5 in Japan? Given current trajectories, i would expect it to happen in 2026, Pokemon gen 10 launching on Switch 2 next year will probably take the Switch 2 over PS5 there and then at the latest.

Switch 2 is catching up very quickly already. After more than 1 month on the market Switch 2 already has an install base that it took PS5 a good way into 2022 to reach in Japan.