May 2025 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out Now

[trunkswd]

Just going to post this in here as I saw some people say we have PS5 estimates too low. Here is my explanation to why we have the numbers where we do.

June should be around or over 1 million given the fact it has 5 weeks compared to 4 weeks for May and there were some promotions during the month of June. That should put PS5 up to 77.3 million to 77.4 million sold at the end of June.

 

PS5 shipped 2.4 million from April to June 2024. PS5 shipment numbers were down year-on-year in 3 of the 4 quarters for fiscal year 2024. Only the holiday quarter had numbers up. If shipment numbers are flat year-on-year that would be 80.2 million shipped at the end of June. 

 

You add that up and that puts the gap around 2.8 million to 2.9 million depending on our estimates for the month and if Sony shipped the same amount as a year ago. To compare, we had the gap between sold and shipped at 2.9 million at the end of March.

 

Sony did reveal PS5 had sold-through 56 million in March 2024 (end of FY 2023), while there were 59.3 million shipped for a confirmed gap of 3.2 million. Page 14 - https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/business_segment_meeting/pdf/2024/GNS_E.pdf

 

Now if shipment data is higher than expected we will adjust our PS5 estimates up. Unless we get sell-through data again from Sony, the plan is to slowly shrink the gap between sold and shipped each quarter as sales are on the decline. We will do the same for Switch 1.

Last edited by trunkswd - on 09 July 2025