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archbrix on 14 May 2025
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archbrix said:
RolStoppable said:

This reminds me of eight years ago when Nintendo had forecasted 10m for the fiscal year ending March 2018 and most people treated that as the ceiling instead of the floor which it actually was.

Why did Nintendo pick 15m for Switch 2? Because that's enough to make the point that they expect Switch 2 to sell faster than Switch 1 which shipped 14.86m during its first ten months. Obviously they can manufacture more than 15 million units and they will ship them, provided the demand is there. After all, Switch 1's forecast of 10m ended up being 15.05m during the aforementioned fiscal year.

Whether or not the demand will be there is up in the air, but 15m is not the ceiling for what Nintendo can ship during this fiscal year.

Thank you for the perspective.  Saves me from having to look up those stats.

Regarding this thread though, PS5 will win this for sure now barring Sony having to increase the PS5 price similar to Xbox because of tariffs.

Yeah... not so sure about this now.  Sony's 15m fiscal forecast, like Nintendo's, can be viewed as conservative because of the market conditions but PS5's 2.8m shipment for Jan-March is lower than I thought.  Even if we apply a modest 15% drop for the PS5 for the remainder of the calendar year, it would finish at just over 16m.  We will have to see just how much stock Nintendo can muster up and how high demand stays for Switch 2 between launch and the end of the year, but again, taking GTA out of the equation makes things much closer between the two systems in this competition.

In any case, I do hope that tariffs don't interfere any more than they already have at this point for anyone, skewing the results in what would otherwise be a very interesting comparison.