Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Bofferbrauer2]

shavenferret said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Thing is, they actually can't.

Conscripts are by law only allowed to fight on Russian terrain, and it's a law that Putin can't remove without removing himself from power as Russians are very proud of it, up to a potential civil war. Meaning for an invasion Russia needs volunteers.

And those volunteers they bought with extensive and ever-growing signup bonuses. The federal minimum is 400k rubles, roughly $4500, and that's just what they get either way for signing up, in most regions those numbers are way higher, up to 5M rubles ($60000, enough to buy yourself (or your family) a fancy house in Russia's countryside) in some more extreme cases. In fact, Putin spends over 20 million dollar per day just on recruiting fresh meat.

And yet, despite these giant bonuses, the engagement rates are dropping, less and less want to sign up for service. Many prefer now to work in the military industry producing weapons, because here the salaries have skyrocketed to levels that are actually comparable to average salaries in western Europe and both the employment and life are safe. Due to having full employment in Russia, it's also a tricky situation for Putin: He can't strengthen recruitment without weakening production or vice-versa. Probably why North Koreans are now fighting in Ukraine, they, along African hires, fill the growing gaps in Russia's recruitment.

In short, the russian military efforts are falling apart.  

Putin is between a rock and a hard place: he can't stop the war without tanking the economy, but he also can't go on for much longer without tanking the economy. As a result, he's stalling and waiting opportunities, as it's by far his best option right now.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 14 May 2025