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Fight-the-Streets said:

I don't take Nintendo's forecasts serious anymore. I think 15 mil is lowballing for the Switch 2 as well as the 4.5 mil for the Switch 1. We have to wait and see but calculations made based on Nintendo's forecasts are ill-advised.

Why's that? I think Nintendo are only about around 20% off from their targets. Their drop in switch sales mirrors what happens for most generations and the Switch has barely any 1st party games coming out.