I’m revising my shipment forecast: [NSW2 - 14.7mil C’25] 4.3mil (June), 3.2mil (Q2F26), 7.2mil (Q3F26), 3.5mil (Q4F26); [PS5 - 15.4mil C’25 (-23.1% YoY)] 3.0mil [Q1C25], 2.4mil [Q2C25], 3.1mil [Q3C25], 6.9mil [Q4C25].
If Nintendo is saying 15mil for the entire fiscal year, then that means they don’t have stock to meet launch demand. So, 4.3mil seems to be an appropriate ceiling for the first month. The small library & high price tag (comp to NSW) will also make sales not nearly as strong as NSW’s 2019-2022 numbers, so quarterly/holiday figures will likely match that of 2018/2023. With all the price uncertainty with NSW2 and (esp) PS5, this could def be a very close comparison.
Bonus: [NSW - 4.6mil F’26] 0.9mil (Q1F26), 1.0mil (Q2F26), 2.3mil (Q3F26), 0.4mil (Q4F26).
Last edited by firebush03 - on 09 May 2025
