I think launch year Switch 2 will win over Switch. Nintendo is likely pumping out tons of systems this time around, whereas with the Switch they were coming off the WiiU failure and were conservative in how many systems they were producing and it was super hard to find one in 2017.
I'm guessing Switch 2 will have a record breaking launch day/month, but then after that initial period of everyone who wants it right away and will pay any price, by like late Summer I think sales will fall off, but then still have a good holiday season as it'll be the hot new gaming thing to have and end up easily beating Switch's 2017 sales. 2026 though might be kinda rough for Switch 2 after that initial launch crowd and holiday crowd is done buying and you start hitting up against the base that doesn't want to pay sky high prices for a system and games.
Nintendo's awful pricing strategy for Switch 2 will be an interesting thing to watch. They are basically testing how badly they can fleece their fans before they stop buying Nintendo. If this strategy wins, consumers lose big time and we can expect prices to keep getting jacked up every gen unlike the pretty stable pricing of the past two decades. If the strategy fails Nintendo will have egg on their face and have to drastically reduce prices, a 3DS scenario, which will be good for the industry and consumers. Here's hoping for the latter! Or worst case scenario, after a couple years they release both a Lite and a Home model at a more affordable $350 price at which point sales start to rebound. But if Nintendo doesn't do anything to make next gen have good affordable options I think it'll be limited to around 100m, definitely not 172m haha
I do think they'll sale 30m+ again in Japan, because that's the one place where the system is actually affordable, and affordability may be the only thing stopping this system from perhaps being the most successful system ever overall, assuming the rather weak launch period first party lineup is not indicative of what software lineup is gonna be in general.
