Pretty good analysis, though it is obviously hard to guess the exact profits/losses per console and software. Anyway, FishyJoe mentioned some additional expenses that are not included, but would affect the results. I don't think the R&D done for Home or the operating expenses of PSN are that significant, probably we're talking about tens of millions of dollars of R&D and maybe a similar amount for the PSN. Marketing costs are on another level, however. I'd suspect them to be anything between 10 to 20 percent of the total revenue, so that would have a big impact on the PSP and PS3 hardware figures. Other unknowns are the R&D expenses for the PS3 revisions, PSP and the next generation of hardware. If you take these into account, the losses per hardware will be somewhat smaller I believe, but it's virtually impossible to say how much.
In any event, Sony has sustained huge losses so far. For a comparison, during the same timeframe Nintendo has posted profits of 811.4 + 913.2 + 1620.9 + 2393.3 = 5738.8 million dollars. If Sony can sell the hardware at cost or for some profit and if they can sell boatloads of software and movies, I believe they can recuperate the losses. It is good that they are focusing on being profitable now, that gives me hope.
