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So it is looking like a +15 percentage-point shift towards Democrats from November, given all of the special elections so far this year. That'd put a hypothetical 2026 HoR at about 260D 175R (excluding independents for convenience.) A super-majority would be 290D. Depending on when it becomes clear that we're destined for a Great Recession 2.0 at the least, and maybe even a depression-like economy, 290D could increasingly become a possibility (albeit an unlikely one.)
A shift like this would also put states like Ohio and North Carolina as potential pickups for the senate. J.D Vance (2022) only won by +5%, and Tillis (2020) by +1.8% in much tougher years for Democrats than a hypothetical +15 (or more) shifted 2026.
Heck, Iowa might even be competitive (Joni Ernst won by +6.59% in 2020.)
And of course Maine is likely to be competitive regardless, Susan Collins won by +8.59% (2020) but that was pre-Dobbs and again, 2020 was a very close election. She'll have to be more of a maverick in her actions (rather than just words) if she wants to keep this seat in that sort of environment.
If things stay as they are I think a 260D+ HoR, and tied or 51D Senate are good possibilities in 2026.
Edit: Just for context the HoR vote was +2.8% R in 2024. With a 15% shift, we'd expect something like + 12.2% D in 2026. The last big blow-out election was 2008, during the Great Recession reaction, with Democrats winning 257 HoR seats and +10.6% more votes than Republicans.
Last edited by sc94597 - on 02 April 2025
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