We cannot say where Switch will land in the end but one thing is for sure: 157 million is the absolute floor for the Switch now! Lets face it: The Switch will be ~ 152 million by the end of march wich will be about 11 million shipped for FY8! I just cannot see the Switch selling below 4 million this FY (down 60%+) wich pushes it to 156 million by march 2026. Anything less than a million for 2026/27 is basically impossible= 157 million. But there is a problem: When Switch 2 releases, Switch will be at ~ 153- 154 million, probably around DS level! Usually Nintendo handhelds sold ~ 7 million units after their sucessor came out. At the most pessimistic scenario i see 153 million when the sucessor arrives and another 3 million this FY+ another million next FY wich would be 4 million post Switch 2 launch sales! That would be worse than the any other Nintendo handheld after their sucessor's launch and i just can't see that. I predict 4 million minimum for this FY alone and another million for next.
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