Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[RolStoppable]

Ryuu96 said:

Sounds like it's better than expected at least?

CDU still sound shit but at least they're pro-Ukraine, pro-EU, pro-NATO, Scholz will hopefully piss off for someone more strong on Russia and then a CDU + SPD coalition. I'm assuming there's no chance the Greens join the coalition because CDU probably have a typical Conservative stance of "Fuck Greens!"? It would be sad to see Baerbock no longer in cabinet, I thought she was great as foreign affairs minister.

Then again a 3 party coalition sounds like a mess so hopefully it's just CDU + SPD. Sorry Baerbock!

The three relevant parties (CDU, SPD, Greens) all performed a bit worse than the last polls before the election. Now the main reason why the Greens will be left out is because they didn't get enough votes to make CDU+Greens possible, so the only option including them would be CDU+SPD+Greens, but why go with three parties into a coalition when you can have it a lot less complicated with only two. So it will be CDU+SPD and hopefully fast, which means by Easter.

The latest projection has the FDP clearly below 5.0%, but the annoyance BSW is still within striking distance, so we'll have to wait until tomorrow. If they get in, CDU+SPD won't be sufficient because the ongoing shifts in projections favor the AfD. In that scenario the Greens have to be added to a coalition.

Regarding Scholz, in the ensuing panel he implied that he'll be out and perhaps others who fell in line with him in the SPD will go as well. After all, this is the SPD's worst result ever; the first time under 20% and by a notable margin at that.

Even if the results do end up to necessitate a three-party coalition, the global circumstances create pressure that the involved parties have to make it work, whether they want to or not. That's why I am slightly optimistic that everyone will be a bit more willing to agree to compromises on a myriad of topics. And when I say everyone, I am actually only talking about the CDU/CSU and especially the CSU, because in the past the SPD and Greens have commonly given more than they've gotten back.

What I had left out so far is that the conservatives of Germany have a unique setup where the CDU is present in 15 of Germany's 16 states while Bavaria has its own version (CSU). The Bavarians have a habit of making things unnecessarily complicated, kind of like the bullshit the FDP has pulled off from 2021 to 2024.