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Kyuu on 18 February 2025
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killer7 said:
Kyuu said:

As with pretty much everything in "life" and not just gaming, it's never about a single factor. And this takes us back to when I asked why you thought a 2028 launch would be suicidal for PS6. Dreamcast launched with a 16 month headstart against the PS2, it had great graphics for its time and a strong library of games and yet the PS2 buried it and ended Sega's hardware business. Headstart/timing (like pricing, exclusives, 3rd party support, services, specs and features, form factor, marketing, and brand power) is important... but it's just one factor in a complex equation. So by itself, a headstart doesn't tell us anything. The same goes for "pricing", but PS5 is a confirmed sales monster, so we already know that most factors are fulfilled and only price and exclusives (relative to past generations) are holding it back. You can make the price argument for the Switch as well, it is available at a very cheap $200, but the more popular version still has room for effective pricecuts even 8 years after launch.

I can see why you think it's "risky" to launch the PS6 in 2028. Sony itself might freak out and rush the PS6 to contain any potential threat. But unless Microsoft reverses everything they've been saying and doing for a while, a 2026 Xbox launch shouldn't really be a threat, let alone kill a 2028 PS6. Playstation and Xbox are no longer comparable. If Sony doesn't mind letting Nintendo have a 2, 3 or 4 year "headstart", they shouldn't worry about Xbox having a 1-2 year headstart either. Something dramatic has to happen for Xbox to truly be a threat. Microsoft doesn't seem interested in competing with Sony anymore. They're more interested in using Playstation's popularity to maximize software sales, and this is becoming clearer on the daily.

Many people could not see its risky launching PS3 in 2007 either.😉

So many people here believe in the PS6 will be successfull no matter what they do and be Nr.1. PS3 was not. PS5 is not (Switch), the PSP and the Vita wheren't either. Many people spell doom for Switch 2 because every 2nd console sold worse than the 1st or flopped. That is true but what if i said: Every 3rd Playstation lost its generation? If they launch in 2028 it might already be too late anything later than that is not going to happen. If Nintendo goes all in, cuts Switch 2 super short they launch Switch 3 in 2030 and it would be more powerfull than expected, Sony could never wait that long! All rumors point to 2027.

No one thought the PS5 or PS6 would sell more than Switch or Switch 2 (no real opinions on Switch 2 vs PS6 yet lol). Playstation is constantly underestimated. You keep turning everything into a "Nintendo vs Sony" topic. What actually happened though was that nearly everyone thought the PS4 (which was also underestimated until like 2019 where no one knew production would fall off a cliff too soon) would beat the Switch 1. Switch is probably the most underestimated platform of all time by Nintendo fans and haters alike, and the main reason for that is Nintendo having a weak previous generation where their combined consoles couldn't match the Wii alone. People are obsessed about the past.

Most gamers just don't see Sony making PS3 level blunders, and that's not something to get upset over. Sony and Nintendo don't care about when the other is launching their consoles. They're not direct competitors and are able to grow with minimal impact on the other. That might change in the future but it's not yet a source of major concern.

No one is spelling doom on Switch 2, you're just not happy that the sentiment isn't particularly positive. But as I said looking at past trends is meaningless without studying the details, so I wouldn't focus too much on the "2nd console" thing. But it's okay to make early predictions. Early predictions are more challenging and fun because it includes predicting basics like pricing.