Funniest thing about the AMD and IDG figures is that there are rabid fanboys in both ends of the possible Series estimates. Zubytech (or whatever he's called) in the low end and Welfare in the high end. I'll list what we are playing with in their credibility order:
- Sony distributed 9.5 million PS5 this quarter for a grand total of 75 million. (certainty)
- AMD stated that Gen 9 crossed the 100 million units last quarter. (by the start or end of the quarter. certainty)
- IDG estimates 94 million Gen 9 consoles by November. (by the start or end of November. Estimation that might be updated)
Zubytech is assuming that crossing 100M units happened by the end of the quarter leaving no room for more than 25 million. It is "possible" but highly unlikely. It also aligns with IDC's estimates leaving 5 million units for the PS5 and 1 million for Series in December. Again, I think this is a malicious take and Series sales aren't that low.
Welfare is assuming that crossing 100M units happened right by the start of the quarter and Gen 9 sold 75 million PS5 + 36 million Series = 111 million Gen 9 units by the end of it. This doesn't align with IDC estimates and its 94 million Gen 9 units by November. Even if that was updated to 100 million by the start of November it wouldn't align because it would mean 11 million Gen 9 units sold in two months. Again, IDC's estimates should need to be adjusted with an additional six million units. IMHO, Welfare's figures are wildly overestimated.
A more rational take is agreeing with both AMD and IDC. 94 million Gen 9 units by the start of November leaves 6 million to reach AMD's milestone. Taking VGChartz's estimates for November and December would mean 10 million to add to IDC's 94 million for a grand 104 million Gen 9 units by the end of last quarter. 104 million Gen 9 units - 75 million PS5 units = 29 million Series units. Even if IDC were to update their estimations it wouldn't be a radical change over this.
