How much better or worse will Switch 2's 3rd Party Support be?

[Kyuu]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Kyuu said:

Where do you think it'll finish in sales and rank?

Switch will rank #1 in total software sales.  I'd feel better giving an estimate after I get some information from Nintendo first.  (Most of this will probably be unveiled in the next Switch Direct or maybe April 2.)  Info like:

What is Switch's software lineup this year (again should be answered by next Direct)?
Will Pokemon Legends Z-A be on Switch 1, Switch 2, or cross gen?
What models, price points and bundles will be available for Switch 1 after Switch 2's release?

After I know these things I can give you a decent estimate.  What is your estimate for lifetime software sales?

My guesstimate is 1.65-1.9 billion depending on how the transition to Switch 2 goes (prices, crossgen period, etc) and indie support.

PS4's last known figure is "at least 15.77 billion" as of nearly 4 years (15 quarters) ago. Playstation software sold over a billion copies across PS4 and PS5 since. I'd estimate PS4's current software to be about 2 billion (which puts PS5 at about 620 million). So for Switch to rank 1, it has to sell at least 2 billion and maybe quite a bit more.

The problem here is that Nintendo is heavily reliant on first party software, so if most of Switch 2's early Nintendo games are exclusive, Switch 1's software should decline much faster than PS4's which saw a long cross-generational period.