IkePoR said:
That's the million dollar question. If we take into account what Trump says(illegal northern and southern border crossings, drug smuggling) and who Trump is(petty, arrogant, tough), I concluded this: oil from Canada, extortion from both. |
Does he want our oil or not?
https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2024/market-snapshot-almost-all-canadian-crude-oil-exports-went-to-the-united-states-in-2023.html
We can ramp up export to other countries instead and make our oil more expensive for Americans with export tarrifs. Who is that going to hurt more? The people paying at the pump that don't have money to spare. And there are also ideas floating to cut off electricity supply to the states.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/crude-oil-tariffs-united-states-canada-1.7434926
Nonetheless, there are reasons to believe that Canada's strongest cards in a trade war are not what it would decline to buy, but rather what it would decline to sell. Oil is not the only resource card that Canada holds, says Lawrence Herman, an international trade lawyer and former Canadian diplomat.
"It's probably the maximum leverage we have — the weapon, if you want to put it that way, that would have the most impact on the U.S. side. But as we all know, it is highly divisive politically in Canada.
"There are ways, however, in which this could be done," Herman told CBC News, pointing to Ontario Premier Doug Ford's willingness to cut off electricity exports that many northern states heavily depend on.
The North American electrical grid sprawls across the U.S.-Canadian border in a series of 'interconnections' that run north-south rather than east-west. Many U.S. states depend on power generated in Canada.
Fact is, the US is pretty reliant on Canadian oil nowadays, so who is holding the bargaining chips?
Questions remain, though. A big one is: who would end up having to eat those losses? Would it be the U.S. refiners themselves? Would they pass on all of the costs to the American consumer, as the Canadian government would hope? Or would they force the Canadian suppliers to lower their prices, since Canadian producers are also hostages of the same fixed transportation network, and would struggle to find other markets?
Some analysts believe that all three would end up sharing the cost, and past experience has shown that a 20 per cent increase in cost at the refinery level typically translates to about a 10 per cent increase at the retail pumps.
All of those considerations are at play as Canadian politicians ponder their nuclear option, along with the concerns about national unity.
But even though the cost would be high, says Herman, the threat should stay on the table.
"Trump is threatening the Canadian economy and Canadian livelihood, and in effect threatening Canada as a country. And we have to respond accordingly," he said.
"It's very hard to orchestrate something where the pain or the difficulties are felt equally across the country. Some regions, some sectors, may feel the pain more than others. But as Doug Ford rightly said, we've got to deal with this as a national matter, as something that affects Canada as a whole."
Trump thinks he can force us into becoming the 51st state with trade tarrifs. Ludicrous. Meanwhile the damage is already done. The sentiment about Americans is changing here fast.
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