Switch 2 Sales Predictions: Next PS2 or Wii U Disaster?

[Olivernintentoal]

Norion said:

It's basically guaranteed to be a success so a Wii U disaster is of the table. For how it'll do overall worse than the Switch is my expectation due to just how much that platform had going for it for most of its life. If the covid pandemic didn't happen the Switch 2 outselling it would be a lot more likely but I do think over 130m is more likely to happen than not so if it declines I don't expect it to matter that much. 

Olivernintentoal said:

Historically, no direct successor to a Nintendo console has ever outsold its predecessor:

• SNES vs. NES (-21%)
• Game Boy Advance vs. Game Boy (-31%)
• 3DS vs. DS (-51%)
• Wii U vs. Wii (-87%)

I'll add context to this part. For the SNES vs. NES the former declined cause of it having proper competition and the GB lasted over a decade before a successor was released while the GBA only lasted 3.5 years before that happened so if the GBA had a longer life it could've easily reached GB levels. And the other two declined so much due to Nintendo screwing up though both would've still declined regardless even if they were more appealing.

Between those four the Switch to Switch 2 looks like it could potentially be a combination of NES to SNES and GB to GBA since it'll likely have greater competition than its predecessor and probably won't have a massive phenomenon boosting sales.

I completely agree - the PS1 and other competitors significantly hampered the SNES sales. I'm sure you're right that GBA would have sold way more with a longer lifecycle. We don't know much about what Nintendo is planning, which is why there are so many factors at play here. The Wii U also had a super short life due to poor sales. I don't think that will happen with Switch 2, but time will tell!