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killer7 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I appreciate your update. Though I don’t understand why an LCD Switch 2 would cause the discontinuation of the most successful iteration for the past 2 years.

I’d like to go over my predictions I had and how it compared to reality.

Prediction:

-Q1: 3.4M Shipped, 144.72M

-Q2: Constant Nintendo IP releases, 2.7M Shipped, 147.42M

-Q3: Bundles, Price drops, increased game releases, last solo holiday, 5.6M Shipped, 153.02M

-Q4: Successor Announced with 4/3/25 launch date, Legends Z-A launches, New FY goal of 25M, 1.8M Shipped, 154.82M


Reality:

-Q1: 2.1 Shipped 143.42. Overcalculated Shipped by 1.2M and total by 1.3M

-Q2: Released Nintendo World Champions NES, Emio Famicom Detective, Legend of Zelda:EoW. It was constant with 1 per month. 2.62M Shipped 146.02M. Overcalculated Shipped by 0.08M (actually really good), and total by 1.4M.

-Q3: Several Bundles, No price drops, more releases than Q1 but less than Q2 (just barely) and same amount of IP released as Q2 and Q1, last solo holiday confirmed. With the data we have as of Jan 23 (before Europe info), 3.86M Shipped, 149.90M. Overcalculated Shipped by 1.74M, and total by 3.12M (still waiting on Europe numbers but looks like I’ll be off by almost Q1 shipped).

-Q4: Successor Announced in January with a Direct on 4/2/25. One day off and it’s a direct (many thought it was a launch date lol). There rest will be found out later.

I think I did fairly well. My Q1 and Q3 were a bit bad though.

Switch will be 150 million+ shipped minimum at the end of Q3! Wait and see.

I agree in fact if Americas was 0.98M, we should expect Europe to be near 0.5-0.7M (we’ll use 0.6M), and the RotW near 0.2-0.4M (we’ll use 0.3M) pushing the Switch to 150.8M shipped.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.