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I wouldn't expect Switch 2 to have TOO much of an impact.
I'm sure we'll see a drop to like a 30-40k baseline. Which is still a good baseline, especially for a system entering Year 9!
Once that Switch 2 Direct comes and goes on April 2 and we (presumably) have a price, release date, and launch lineup, THAT'S when sales are really going to sink to like 10-20k