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killer7 on 27 December 2024
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firebush03 said:
kenjab said:

This is a very interesting comparison. The Switch has been far more consistent year-to-year than DS was, though DS had higher highs in '06/'07.

I'm very curious how Switch will perform after the successor releases now, as the DS's sales absolutely plummeted once 3DS released in 2011.

Think of this way: The DS was at 32.15 at the end of 2010, coming off a nearly 3M year. Yet it still finished BELOW 33M! If the Switch finishes like the DS did, it will finish below 36M.  Doesn't that seem impossible with how well it's been selling to date?

I feel like this dependents entirely on (i) pricing difference btwn systems, and (ii) whether Nintendo chooses to ship out millions of NSW units after having launched the successor. (Can’t be having the predecessor cannibalizing successor figures, like how SNES ate away at N64 in JP during the 90s.) I wouldn’t be totally shocked if a DS-style drop occurred in JP, if I were to be completely honest. However, anything can happen…maybe NSW will be the exception (as it tends to be).

The DS was sold till 2015 when the 3DS launched. The 3DS did it till 2021 when the Switch launched. The GBA also had some juice left after the DS. The Gameboy lasted ~ 14 years if we include the Color. Even without that the GB (original) had even first party games till 2000. Even the NES was around after the SNES came. Only the N64, the Gamecube and the WiiU died off quickly after its sucessor came out. You can bet that the Switch will last till 2027 at least! It won't ship less than 4 million next year and at least a few 100k if not even a million in 2026/27. And thats pessimistic.