By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
firebush03 9 hours ago
Edit Thread
XtremeBG said:

2. My claim is a fact, not just a claim. It is January - October 2023 vs January - October 2024. You don't need to get to articles, (those ones are before adjustments keep in mind). You can just go and see the hardware by date tool on the website and compare the period on monthly bases when you add up the months for each period. There, the numbers are always up to date and adjusted. I do this often since I run sales threads, and I know. So if you go there and check you will see that US sales from Jan - Oct 2023 is exactly 3M, for this year it is 1.7M. It's simple as that. If you throw in November the difference gets to 3.6M vs 2.3M. About your calculation for the Black Friday, last November the US sales for the month were till 26th, so black Friday was included. This year they are till 30th November, which again Black Friday included. No need to exclude it from the calculations. Of course with November included the drop becomes smaller since this November is flat with the last year (yes flat, 17k difference in US can't really be called up year on year, well technically it can, but it's almost nothing when you look at the full number 573k vs 590k, it's essentially the same). About the drop overall for the year, I agree it will be less in the end since November is flat, so with that the drop per year gets to 36%. December drop also may be less than the previous months. If your 25% is true, then the year in US should finish at 3.7M. So you expect 1.4M in December in US alone ? When 2023 finished short of 1.3M ? Very doubtful.

There's a hardware-by-date tool? Since when did this exist?? Lol. Where do I find this? And yeah, 3.6mil v 2.3mil does sound about right when adding Black Friday back into last year's figures. So, that'd be somewhere around 35% drop YoY, though I do see where you're getting that near 45-50% drop YoY figure from (you were talking about through October, not November...misread that detail). Adjusting my estimates, I'd see maybe 30-35% drop YoY for NSW in US as being possible. I think 25% would be a little unexpected, though NSW has certainly done far less expected things, so wouldn't count out the possibility entirely.