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killer7 on 15 November 2024
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Slownenberg said:
killer7 said:

I think january 2025 is the earliest, but i wouldn't even be surprised to see it in march 2025. February, i don't know why but i don't think so. 2 possibilities:

1.) Jauary teaser, March showcase, may- july launch

2.) March teaser, may- july showcase, september- december release

Outside chance: Nintendo will show nothing at all this FY because they changed their plans and go out with a summer teaser, a late 2025 showcase (won't hurt them because Switch sales should be clearly below 10 million in 2025 Switch Up or not) and a march 2026 release.

No1 - yes, I'd say 99% that's the schedule. Likely the only reason they aren't revealing it until January (or maybe at latest Feb, but that seems unlikely cuz at that point there is no reason to wait) is to not hurt Switch holiday sales. And the only reason people are suggesting now that it won't release until later in the year is because for some reason people got it in their heads that a Spring launch requires a Fall reveal, regardless of the fact that it would hurt Switch holiday sales.

No2 - no way, unless Nintendo really screwed up and development of their launch games has been going very badly. Not being able to launch the system until late in the year would be a huge blunder by Nintendo. And I don't see any reason to think that will be the case, considering we already know they are revealing the system in the first three months of the year.

Outside chance: zero chance. They were planning to launch it this holiday season but the launch games weren't ready to go, no way they are over a year behind on the games. Switch 2 will have 15+ million sales by March 2026.

I really wouldn't rule out anything anymore. Remember the high self estem, with wich people swore it would launch in march 2023 (because Nintendo always replaces its systems after 6 years blablabla...)? The same went for every quater till this one. March 2025 was the earliest possible launchdate from the beginning. Nintendo said numerous times that Switch will stay without a sucessor longer than any other Nintendo CONSOLE before. So the NES was replaced after 7 years. That basically excluded a release before summer 2024 from 2019 when they said that. I think it was never planed to release Switch Up before 2025, only this Switch Pro at the end of 2021 wich was canned. Some years ago, who would have thought that my original prediction from early 2019 (march 2025) would be the absolute earliest possible release date, not the latest?! Switch will sell under 10 million next year Switch Up or not, even if they,'ll hit their original FC (13,50 million) the possibility would be there.