2024 US Presidential Election

[LurkerJ]

sundin13 said:

LurkerJ said:

The stories covered by Vaush in this clip are wild. 

Apparently Biden’s internal polling was showing a loss of 400 electoral votes when he was insisting he was the only who could beat Trump and decided to run again?

I get why the left has no interest in nuanced discussions since the dems got wiped out, however, only 175k votes were required to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Harris’s favour (last I read).

If Biden did things differently it’s not hard to see how 175k votes could’ve gone differently the outcome was different. 

Assuming that story is accurate, why do people think that Dems would have done significantly better given a longer campaign? A shorter campaign helps maintain enthusiasm and allows the candidate to run a campaign focused on the general election instead of having to pivot after the primary. 

My take is that Dems were doomed from the start because of idiots not understanding the economy. 

Highly likely the story is accurate giving the source, the external polling numbers we had, and the fact that we were all aware of the highly unusual pressure he faced to step aside; other stories of similar importance were confirmed by Pelosi (Biden shutting any opportunity for an a primary process by endorsing Kamala).

Giving the number of votes that decided the swing states, it's not accurate to say the dems "were doomed". Doomed means no alternative reality would've changed the outcome, but the number of votes needed to change the outcome is actually small; stress testing the candidacy might have allowed someone else to run, what we know about Kamala's popularity in 2019 and her ability to energise voters is in line with the numbers we're seeing now.

It's not hard to see how another 2024 primary would've had given us similar warnings about who shouldn't and should run for president, and flipped the few votes that decided the swing states blue. 

Last edited by LurkerJ - on 11 November 2024