haxxiy said:
The remaining vote is similar in composition to what's already in (according to the NYT needle before it went offline) so Gallego is very likely winning. Also, I don't think Harris has a shot at the popular vote anymore. California swung too hard like everyone else. Even if the outstanding mail is like 65-35 the popular vote will probably end up around 77m - 75m in his favor. |
Arizona is a bit of a different beast. Despite being over twice the size of Georgia, it only has 15 counties where Georgia has 158 counties. Maricopa County is 60 percent of the population (it's more populated than 24 states as well) and varies as wildly in its composition as some states do. Phoenix, Tempe, and Guadalupe are very liberal. Much of the rest of the county is conservative. Scottsdale is wealthy Republicans, Mesa has a large Mormon population, and Glendale is anchored by Luke AFB, so they're more conservative than Phoenix or Tempe. So Maricopa County's votes will depend on where they are still outstanding. Unfortunately, none of the pollsters break Maricopa County down according to municipality, so it's a wild card.
Pima County, home of Tucson, is solidly blue. Coconino County (Flagstaff/Sedona) is also blue, but they have almost finished counting and it isn't nearly as huge a pocket of votes as Maricopa or Pima.
On the Republican side, there is still a sizable pocket of uncounted votes in Yavapai County, which is solidly red (Trump did a lot of rallies in Prescott). Smaller amounts remaining in the rest of the state, but hopefully Yavapai plus these small counties won't offset Gallego's gains in Pima and Maricopa - providing that the outstanding votes in the latter are centered more in Phoenix-Tempe.
Last edited by SanAndreasX - on 07 November 2024
