Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

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I don't expect COD on Gamepass to have a major effect on Xbox hardware; most people will still play it on Playstation.
The casual consumer isn't going to buy a new console just to play COD on a premium subscription service when it's already available on every current and last gen PS/Xbox plus PC, and the hardcore consumer would be less inclined to buy a console with no exclusives.